SPM Poster Awards

The Society for Political Methodology Poster Awards are given for the best poster presented by a graduate student and the best poster presented by a faculty member or other researcher at the annual summer Methodology Meeting of the previous year.

2021 Student Winner: Methods
Recipient Melody Huang (UCLA)
Work "Leveraging Observational Outcomes To Improve the Generalization Of Experimental Results"
Description Huang's poster takes an innovative approach that leverages outcome data in the target population to improve the precision of the population estimate by residualizing the sample data before doing inverse propensity weighting. Melody goes on to reanylze a multi-site experiment and finds her method delivers more precise estimates of a known experimental benchmark.
Selection committee Michael Bailey, Sarah Bouchat, Patrick Brandt, Charles Crabtree, Thomas Gschwend, Erin Hartman, John Londregan, and Betsy Sinclair
2021 Student Winner: Methods
Recipient Nuannuan Xiang (University of Michigan)
Work "Leveraging Observational Outcomes To Improve the Generalization Of Experimental Results"
Description Xiang's poster compares her GP model with the state of the art GSC model. The GP approach mostly returns tighter credible intervals, though it does not track the March 2020 shock to unemployment. We expect that the paper iteration of this paper will provide more guidance on what aspect of the model's nonlinearity leads to it's impressive ability to outperform the GSC.
Selection committee Michael Bailey, Sarah Bouchat, Patrick Brandt, Charles Crabtree, Thomas Gschwend, Erin Hartman, John Londregan, and Betsy Sinclair
2021 Student Winner: Applications
Recipient Erin Rossiter (Washington University in St. Louis)
Work "The Consequences of Interparty Conversation on Outparty Affect and Stereotypes"
Description Rossiter's poster examined why Americans increasingly dislike members of the opposite political party, a vital issue as our democracy strains due to increasing polarization. Erin combines two important innovations.  First, she implements a blocked cluster design that facilitates statistically efficient analysis of experimental treatments.  Second, she develops a chat software that allows people to have real-time written conversations on-line.  This design allows her to analyze the effects of different types of interactions.  While those with no contact with members of the other political party exhibit no change in their feelings toward the other party, those who engage in a conversation exhibit clearly warmer feelings toward members of the other party.  The effects appear roughly similar for both political and non-political conversations.  These results provide new evidence that interparty social interaction, regardless of whether the conversation is politically-charged or not, can work to undo the negative view of outparty members held by many Americans.
Selection committee Michael Bailey, Sarah Bouchat, Patrick Brandt, Charles Crabtree, Thomas Gschwend, Erin Hartman, John Londregan, and Betsy Sinclair
2021 Student Winner: Applications
Recipient Luwei Ying (Washington University in St. Louis)
Work "Religiosity and Secularism: A Text-as-Data Approach to Recover Jihadist Groups’ Rhetorical Strategies"
Description Ying's poster tests the hypothesis that as Jihadist groups become stronger their rhetoric moves along a continuum from religious to secular, while it moves back again when events turn against the Jihadis.  To operationalize this Luwei gathered an impressive multilingual corpus spanning decades of Jihadi literature, and hand coded it, with separate filters for religious and secular vocabulary in each language. Ying shows that the log odds of using secular vocabulary does indeed rise and fall with variables measuring the political success of the Jihadis. Luwei goes on to provide confirmatory analysis using twitter.
Selection committee Michael Bailey, Sarah Bouchat, Patrick Brandt, Charles Crabtree, Thomas Gschwend, Erin Hartman, John Londregan, and Betsy Sinclair
2021 Faculty Winner
Recipient Jay Goodliffe (Brigham Young University)
Work "Using Latent Transition Analysis to Explain Donor Behavior"
Description The prize for the best faculty poster goes to Jay Goodliffe, for his poster in which he analyzes why citizens start and stop donating to campaigns.  This is an important question because most donors give only occasional small amounts.   Jay develops a sophisticated latent transition model to identify patterns of giving.  One pattern, for example, is donors who give only to presidential candidates, while another pattern is a donor who contributes medium-size donations to out-of-state congressional candidates.  Jay’s approach allows him to analyze transitions from one pattern to another finding, for example, that donating in a presidential election does not generally lead people to become donors in midterms.  Goodliffe’s work combines rigorous statistical techniques with informative visualizations to help us better understand an important political phenomenon.
Selection committee Michael Bailey, Sarah Bouchat, Patrick Brandt, Charles Crabtree, Thomas Gschwend, Erin Hartman, John Londregan, and Betsy Sinclair

Past Recipients

Year Recipient Work
2020 (Student, Methods) Shiyao Liu (MIT) "Informing Complier Average Treatment Effects with Post-Treatment Variables"
2020 (Student, Applications) Luke Sanford (UC San Diego) “Remote Sensing and Synthetic Controls: Measuring the Effects of Land Titling on Agricultural Productivity”
2020 (Faculty) David Puelz (University of Chicago) "A Graph-Theoretic Approach to Causal Inference under Interference"
2019 (Student, Methods) Erin Rossiter (Washington University in St. Louis) "Measuring Visual Messages: Political Violence and Computer Vision"
2019 (Student, Applications) Kelsey Shoub (UNC Chapel Hill) “How Changing Frame Sets Alters Legislative Outcomes in Congress”
2019 (Faculty) Erin Hartman (UCLA) "Equivalence Based Falsification Tests for Regression Discontinuity Designs"
2018 (Student) Michelle Torres (Washington University in St. Louis) "Measuring Visual Messages: Political Violence and Computer Vision"
2018 (Faculty) John Jackson (University of Michigan) "Correct Standard Errors with Clustered Data"
2017 Dana Higgins (Harvard) "Disaggregating Data Using Multiple Imputation: Battle Related Deaths"
2016 Anton Strezhnev (Harvard) "A New Method for Estimating Treatment Effects under 'Truncation-by-Death'"
2016 Yuki Shirito (Princeton) "Topical N-Gram Citation Model"
2015 Dean Knox (MIT) "Identifying Peer Effects under Homophily with an Instrumental Variable: Patronage and Promotion in the Chinese Bureaucracy"
2015 Dorothy Kronick (Stanford) "Ecological Inference with Vote-Share Data"
2014 Felipe Nunes (UCLA) "A Bayesian Two-part Latent Class Model for Longitudinal Government Expenditure Data: Assessing the Impact of Vertical Political Alliances and Vote Support.”
2013 Scott Abramson (Princeton) "Production, Predation and the European State 1152-1789."
2012 Brenton Kenkel (University of Rochester) "Logistic Regression Coefficients with Nonignorable Missing Outcomes."
2010 Fernando Daniel (Danny) Hidalgo (UC Berkeley) "Digital Democracy: The Consequences of Electronic  Voting Technology in Brazil."
2009 Benjamin Lauderdale (Princeton) "Does Congress Represent Public Opinion As It Is, or As It Might Be?"
2009 Benjamin Goodrich (Harvard) "Bringing Rank-Minimization Back In."
2008 Xun Pang (Washington University in St. Louis) "Binary and Ordinal Time Series with AR(p) Errors: Bayesian Model Determination for Latent High-Order Markovian Processes."
2007 Daniel Hopkins (Harvard) "Flooded Communities: Using the Post-Katrina Migration as a Quasi-Experiment."
2007 Aya Kachi (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign) "The Empirical Implications of a Theoretical Model on Coalition Bargaining and Governmental Survival."
2006 Jong Hee Park (Washington University in St. Louis) "Modeling Structural Changes: Bayesian Estimation of Multiple Changepoint Models and State Space Models."
2005 Michael Kellermann (Harvard) "Bayesian estimation of ideal points in the British House of Commons using Early Day Motions."
2005 Betsy Sinclair (Caltech) "Is It Better to Be First or Last? The Ballot Order Effect."
2004 Marisa Abrajano (NYU) "All Style and No Substance? Campaign Advertising for Anglos and Latinos in the U.S."
2004 Gabriel Lenz (Princeton) "Testing for Priming in Two-wave Panels: A Reanalysis of Three Studies Finds Little Evidence of Issue Opinion Priming and Some Evidence of Issue Opinion Change."
2003 Hyeok Yong Kwon (Cornell) "Has Economic Insecurity Produced Left-Wing Voters? A Markov Chain Approach."
2003 Sona Nadenichek Golder (NYU) "Pre-Electoral Coalition Formation."
2002 Sunshine Hillygus (Stanford) "The Dynamics of Voter Decision-making in Election 2000."
2001 Joshua D. Clinton (Stanford) "Representation and the 106th Congress: Legislators’ Voting Behavior and their Geographic and Party Constituencies."
2000 Jake Bowers (UC Berkeley) "Sample Design for Studying Congressional Elections."
1999 Kevin Clarke (University of Michigan) "Testing Nonnested Models of the Democratic Peace."
1998 Adam Berinsky (University of Michigan) "The Two Faces of Public Opinion."

Past Selection Committees

Year Committee
2020 Dan Hopkins (chair, UPenn), Pablo Barbera (USC), Adam Glynn (Emory), Molly Roberts (UC San Diego), Kevin Quinn (University of Michigan), Ariel White (MIT)
2019 (Student, Methods) Justin Esarey (chair, Rice University), Ines Levin (University of California, Irvine), Chris Lucas (Washington University in St. Louis)
2019 (Student, Applications) Mark Pickup (Simon Fraser University), Alex Tahk (chair, University of Wisconsin-Madison), Michelle Torres (University of Wisconsin-Madison)
2019 (Faculty) Curt Signorino (chair, University of Rochester), Dan Hopkins (University of Pennsylvania), and Kim Twist (San Diego State University)
2018 John Londregan (Chair, Princeton), Adam Berinsky (MIT), Dan Hopkins (University of Pennsylvania), Erin Hartman (University of California, Los Angeles), Melissa Sands (Harvard), Benjamin Lauderdale (LSE)
2017 Neal Beck (NYU, chair), Jeff Gill (American), Ines Levin (UC Irvine) and Sara Mitchell (Iowa)
2016 Erin Hartman (Princeton/UCLA), Richard Nielsen (MIT), Shana Gadarian (Syracuse), Karen Jusko (Stanford), Maya Sen (Harvard)
2015 Arthur Spirling (Chair), Christina Boyd, Devin Caughey, Wendy Tam Cho, Neil Malhotra, Margaret Roberts, Teppei Yamamoto
2014 Andrew Martin (Chair), Alexandra Hennessy, Matt Lebo, Maya Sen, Jeff Harden, Rocio Titiunik, Craig Volden
2013 Fred Boemke (Chair), Megan Shannon, Jay Goodliffe, Dave Peterson, Michael J. Hanmer, Justin Esarey, James Monogan, Amanda Licht, Jake Bowers
2012 Walter Mebane (Chair), Drew Linzer, Robert Erikson, Patrick Brandt, Steve Haptonstahl
2011 Walter Mebane (Chair), Drew Linzer, Robert Erikson, Patrick Brandt, Steve Haptonstahl
2010 Walter Mebane (Chair), Curtis Signorino, Bill Clark, Drew Linzer, Robert Erikson, Patrick Brandt, Xun Pan, Steve Haptonstahl
2009 Suzanna Linn (Chair), Thomas Carsey, Curtis Signorino, Jana von Stein, Bill Clark, Dean Lacy, Drew Linzer, Robert Erikson, Karen Jusko
2008 Andrew Whitford (Chair), Cherie Maestas, Tobin Grant, Michael Bailey, Kathy Powers
2007 Andrew Whitford (Chair), Jake Bowers, Kris Kanthak, Luke Keele, David Kimball, Matthew Lebo