The Gosnell Prize

The Gosnell Prize for Excellence in Political Methodology is awarded for the best work in political methodology presented at any political science conference during the preceding year.

2019 Winner
Recipient Naoki Egami (Princeton)
Work "Identification of Causal Diffusion Effects using Stationary Causal Directed Acyclic Graphs"
Citation The Gosnell Award Committee is pleased to announce Naoki Egami as the winner of the 2019 Gosnell Prize for “Identification of Causal Diffusion Effects using Stationary Causal Directed Acyclic Graphs.” Egami’s paper brings fresh insights to the study of how ideas and behaviors diffuse across people, governments, or countries. Causal diffusion effects are difficult to study, however, due to common biases such as contextual confounding and homophily bias. Egami’s strongest contribution is to show that if diffusion is stationary over time, then these types of omitted variable biases can be detected by leveraging lagged dependent variables. The stationarity assumption requires only stability in the presence or absence of causal effects, which is weaker than an assumption about stability in the direction or magnitude of the effects. Egami productively leverages directed acyclic graphs to develop this placebo test, and, under stronger assumptions, develops a bias-corrected estimator that will remove the detected unmeasured confounding from the causal diffusion estimates. Given the interest in studying diffusion, these tools have the potential to become an integral part of the applied methodological toolkit in political science and beyond.
Selection committee Matthew Blackwell (Harvard), Marc Ratkovic (Princeton), and Fredrik Savje (Yale)

Past Recipients

Year Recipient Work
2018 Fredrik Savje (Yale),  Peter Aronow (Yale), and Michael Hudgens (UNC) "A Folk Theorem on Interference in Experiments"
2017 Matthew Blackwell (Harvard) "Instrumental Variable Methods for Conditional Effects and Causal Interaction in Voter Mobilization Experiments"
2016 Marc Rotkovic (Princeton), Dustin Tingley (Harvard) "Sparse Estimation with Uncertainty: Subgroup Analysis in Large Dimensional Designs"
2015 Sebastian Calonico, Matias Cattaneo, and Rocio Titiunik "Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression-Discontinuity Designs"
2014 Margaret E. Roberts (UC San Diego), Brandon M. Stewart (Harvard), Dustin Tingley (Harvard), Christopher Lucas (Harvard), Jetson Leder-Luis (Caltech), Shana Gadarian (Syracuse), Bethany Albertson (UT Austin), and David Rand (Yale) "Topic Models for Open-Ended Survey Responses with Applications to Experiments"
2013 Adam Glynn and Konstantin Kashin (Harvard) "Front-door Versus Back-door Adjustment with Unmeasured Confounding: Bias Formulas for Front-door and Hybrid Adjustments."
2012 Thomas Gschwend, James Lo, and Sven-Oliver Proksch (University of Mannheim) "A Common Left-Right Scale for Voters and Parties in Europe."
2011 Robert J. Franzese, Jr. (University of Michigan), Jude C. Hays, Aya Kachi (University of Illinois) "Modeling History-Dependent Network Coevolution"
2010 Jong Hee Park (University of Chicago) "Joint Modeling of Dynamic and Cross-Sectional Heterogeneity: Introducing Hidden Markov Panel Models"
2009 John Freeman (University of Minnesota), and Jeff Gill (Washington University in St. Louis) "Dynamic Elicited Priors for Updating Covert Networks."
2008 Kevin Quinn (Harvard) "What Can be Learned from a Simple Table? Bayesian Inference and Sensitivity Analysis for Causal Effects from 2x2 and 2x2xK Tables in the Presence of Unmeasured Confounding."
2007 Alberto Abadie, Alexis Diamond, and Jens Hainmueller (Harvard) "Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program."
2006 Michael Penn Colaresi (Michigan State), Michael Crespin (University of Georgia), Burt L. Monroe (Michigan State), Kevin M. Quinn (Harvard), and Dragomir R. Radev (University of Michigan) "An Automated Method of Topic-Coding Legislative Speech Over Time With Application to the 105th-108th U.S. Senate"
2005 Alexis Diamond (Harvard) and Jasjeet S. Sekhon (UC Berkeley) "Genetic Matching for Estimating Causal Effects: A General Multivariate Matching Method for Achieving Balance in Observational Studies."
2004 Henry Brady, John McNulty (UC Berkeley) "A “Natural Experiment” on the Costs of Voting: Methodologies for Analyzing Observational Data when the Treatment is Nearly Randomized."
2003 Won-Ho Park (University of Michigan) "Estimation of Voter Transition Rates and Ecological Inference."
2002 Janet Box-Steffensmeier (Ohio State), and Suzanna De Boef (Penn State) "A Monte Carlo Analysis for Recurrent Events Data."
2001 Andrew D. Martin, Kevin M. Quinn (University of Washington) "Bayesian Learning about Ideal Points of U.S. Supreme Court Justices, 1953-1999."
2000 Curtis S. Signorino, Kuzey Yilmaz (University of Rochester) "Strategic Misspecification in Discrete Choice Models."
1999 Nathaniel Beck (UC San Diego), Gary King (Harvard), and Langche Zeng (Harvard University on leave from GWU) "Improving Quantitative Studies of International Conflict: A Conjecture."
1998 Dean Lacy (Ohio State) "A Theory of Nonseparable Preferences in Survey Responses."
1997 Gary King (Harvard) "A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior From Aggregate Data."
1996 Nathaniel Beck (UC San Diego), and Richard Tucker (Indiana) "Conflict in Space and Time: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable."
1996 Walter R Mebane, Jr., and Jonathan Wand (Cornell University) "Markov Chain Models for Rolling Cross-section Data: How Campaign Events and Political Awareness Affect Vote Intentions and Partisanship in the United States and Canada."
1995 Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier (Ohio State), Renee Smith (University of Rochester) "The Microfoundations of Aggregate Partisanship."
1995 Bradley Palmquist (Harvard) "Respecification Approaches to Ecological Inference: A Comparison of Control Variables and the Quadratic Model."

Past Selection Committees

Year Committee
2018 Matthew Blackwell (Chair), Marc Ratkovic, Fredrik Savje
2017 Michael Peress (Chair), Matt Blackwell, Marc Ratkovic
2016 Michael Peress (Chair), Suzanne Linn, Brandon Stewart
2015 Jake Bowers (Chair), Adam Glynn, Xun Pang
2014 Jake Bowers (Chair), Adam Glynn, Xun Pang
2013 Jay Goodliffe (Chair), Jong Hee Park, Michael Peress
2012 Jay Goodliffe (Chair), Jong Hee Park, Michael Peress
2011 Matthew Lebo (Chair), Kenneth Kollman, Betsy Sinclair
2010 Matthew Lebo (Chair), Kenneth Kollman, Betsy Sinclair
2009 Kenneth Kollman (Chair), Betsy Sinclair, Matthew Lebo
2008 Kenneth Kollman (Chair)
2007 Michael Ward (Chair), Michael Crespin (winner from previous year), Patrick Brandt
2006 Michael Ward (Chair), Alexis Diamond (winner from previous year), Robert Luskin