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Understanding Equation Balance in Time Series Regression

By Peter K. Enns and Christopher Wlezien

Abstract: Most contributors to a recent Political Analysis symposium on time series anal­ysis suggest that in order to maintain equation balance, one cannot combine stationary, integrated, and/or fractionally integrated variables with general error correction models (GECMs) and the equivalent autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models. This defini­tion of equation balance implicates most previous uses of these models in political science and circumscribes their use moving...

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Will H. Moore, Scholar and Mentor

By Justin Esarey

I can’t let the recent death of my friend and co-author Will H. Moore go by without remarking upon the impact that his scholarly work and mentorship had on the scientific community.

Will is probably best known as an expert on human rights, terrorism, and civil conflict. These topics are now in vogue in political science, but weren’t when Will started his career. It is in part...

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The Future of Academic Publishing is Now

By R. Michael Alvarez

[Editor’s note: this post is contributed by R. Michael Alvarez, Co-Editor of Political Analysis and Professor of Political Science at Caltech.]

Over the past six months, Political Analysis has made two important transitions: the move to Cambridge University Press and to Cambridge’s new publishing platform, Core.  We are excited about these changes. Working with The Press as a publishing partner expands our journal’s reach, while providing benefits to members of the Society for Political...

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Call for conference presentation proposals and a special issue of the Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Forecasting in the Social Sciences for National Security

By Ryan Baird

[Editor’s note: The following announcement comes from Ryan Baird, a Political Scientist at the Joint Warfare Analysis Center.]

Call for Presentation Proposals:  Forecasting in the Social Sciences for National Security

In recent years, the subject of forecasting has steadily increased inimportance as policy makers and academic researchers attempt to respond to changes in world events.  Academic projects seeking to advance the state of the art in...

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The .GOV Internet Archive: A Big Data Resource for Political Science

By Emily Kalah Gade, John Wilkerson, and Anne Washington

“Big data” will transform social science research. By big data, we primarily mean datasets that are so large that they cannot be analyzed using traditional data processing techniques. However, big data is further distinguished by diverse types of information and the rapid accumulation of that information.[1] We introduce one recently released big data resource, and discuss its promise along with potential pitfalls. For nearly 20 years, governments have used the web to share information and communicate with citizens...

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2016 Year in Review (and the Most-Viewed Post!)

By Justin Esarey

The Political Methodologist is still in a transitional period, with the search for a new editorial team (and possibly a new publication structure) still ongoing. But 2016 was a great year for new work in TPM, and that’s been reflected in our readership statistics.

In 2016, articles in The Political Methodologist were viewed 46,807 times by 34,324 unique visitors:

...

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By the Numbers: Toward More Precise Numerical Summaries

By Gaurav Sood and Andrew Guess

Unlike the natural sciences, there are few true zeros in the social sciences (p. 960, Gelman, 2011). All sorts of variables are often weakly related to each other. And however lightly social scientists, exogenous events, or other actors intervene, effects of those interventions are rarely precisely zero. When there are few true zeros, categorical statements, like “two variables are significantly related” or “the intervention had a significant effect,” convey limited information—about sample size and luck (and manufactured luck). Yet these kinds...

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2017 Joint Quantitative Political Science Conference for Asia and Australasia

By Benjamin Goldsmith

The first Joint Quantitative Political Science Conference for Asia and Australasia was held from January 9th to 11th at the University of Sydney, Australia. This combined the 4th annual Asian Political Methodology conference (Asian Polmeth IV) and the 5th annual meeting of the Australian Society for Quantitative Political Science (ASQPS V). The conference was co-sponsored by: the Program for Quantitative and Analytical Political Science, Princeton University; the School of Social and...

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IMC: Women Also Know Stuff, “A Discussion of the Role of Gender in Political Science with Women Also Know Stuff — Methodology and Beyond” Friday 11/18 at noon

By Justin Esarey

This Friday, November 18 at noon Eastern time, we will host a panel discussion with Women Also Know Stuff (Emily Beaulieu, Amber Boydstun, Yanna Krupnikov, Melissa Michelson, Christina Wolbrecht). The panel is titled “A Discussion of the Role of Gender in Political Science with Women Also Know Stuff — Methodology and Beyond.”

To tune in to the presentation and participate in the discussion after the talk, visit http://www.methods-colloquium.com/ and click “Watch Now!” on the...

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